Analysts should start "Realcasting" instead of "forecasting"

Perhaps analysts should start "Realcasting" instead of "forecasting". I can't believe they are surprised about retail sales data, they just need to walk the strip, pop into Westfield (count the bags not the people), ring a few city leasing agents and they will get a better read on whats happening. 

Everyone keeps focusing on the problems and the problems persist, perhaps if we realised that we are actually in better shape than most, the wheels of commerce can turn again and we can change our reality...

The article begins here...

Australian dollar declines after retail sales data

Published 11:40 AM, 30 May 2012 Last update 1:09 PM, 30 May 2012

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QUICK SUMMARY | FULL STORY | AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR | CURRENCY

By a staff reporter, with AAP

The Australian dollar has fallen after data showed Australian retail sales fell in April, against expectations of a rise.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed retail spending slipped 0.2 per cent to a seasonally adjusted $21.212 billion in the month.

At 1129 AEST, the currency was at 98.12 US cents just before the data's release, but it fell to 97.83 cents at 1131 AEST.

The currency finished Tuesday's local session at 98.75 US cents and struck a high of 98.55 US cents earlier today.

The forecast was for a total rise in sales of two per cent for the month.

It was also reported that construction work done rose 5.5 per cent in the March quarter, which was ahead of economists' forecasts.

The Australian dollar fell on Tuesday night after Egan-Jones cut Spain's sovereign debt rating and a Spanish official said the government would fund a massive bailout of Bankia, one of Spain's largest banks.

CMC markets foreign exchange dealer Tim Waterer said weaker than expected Australian retail sales figures, released on Wednesday morning added to the downward pressure on the local currency.

"The Australian dollar can't take a trick at the moment, the retail sales print brought down the currency," Mr Waterer said. "I guess the negative result was exacerbated by the fact that we had pretty poor global sentiment in the past 24 hours regarding Spain.

Mr Waterer said the result would add to the case for more interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to help the non-mining sectors of the economy. "The negative retail sales result brought back into focus what is happening with the domestic economy," he said. "It brings back into question what the RBA is going to do with interest rates cuts over the next couple of months.

"It gives the RBA more room to move on the down side with the interest rate and would reduce the appeal of the Australian dollar."

Meanwhile, the Australian bond market was firmer at noon.

At 1200 AEST on Wednesday, the June 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.955 (implying a yield of 3.045 per cent), up from 96.920 (3.080 per cent) on Tuesday.

The June three-year bond futures contract was at 97.670 (2.330 per cent), up from 97.620 (2.380 per cent).