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Tuesday, 24 August 2010

London's Rich Use New Breed of Broker in House Hunt


The following article was authored by Simon Packard (Bloomberg - London) Aug. 17-- 

Beverley Kirby gave up trying to buy a house on her own in London’s Chelsea neighborhood after twice getting burned by owners reneging on agreements to sell to her.The night before Kirby was due to sign for one 4.5 million- pound ($7 million) house a year ago, she was trumped by an offer that was 500,000 pounds higher. The aborted deal cost her 4,000 pounds in fees and left her with a few months to vacate the apartment she had sold.“I was getting desperate,” said Kirby, who bought and sold seven other homes previously with her former husband.
“There was madness in the market. People had no ethics at all.”

That experience, along with the surge in prices for a dwindling number of top-end properties for sale, led Kirby to hire Robert Bailey, a type of broker known as a buying agent.

Bailey is one of several hundred operators in a field that barely existed in the U.K. 15 years ago. He found her a home that wasn’t advertised. Kirby moved into it in early April after Bailey helped her carry out refurbishments and get planning consent to use the top of the garage as a roof terrace.

The brokers are a response to a flaw in Britain that favors sellers, said Phil Spencer, who hosts property-search shows on U.K. television with fellow agent Kirstie Allsopp.  Typically, potential U.K. homebuyers register with “estate agents,” who show them properties but are ultimately paid by the sellers. In the U.S., both buyers and sellers usually hire brokers, though only the sellers pay commission. These fees are shared by both sets of brokers.

‘No Help’

“A buyer has nobody to help them with the biggest financial decision of their life,” said Spencer, 40.
The new breed of advisers charge the potential purchaser a retainer plus commissions of as much as 2.75 percent of the sale price. It’s a cottage industry largely used by the wealthy because it’s too expensive for most people with budgets of less than about 500,000 pounds.
      
Buying agents have proliferated in the luxury markets of London and southern England as a weaker pound has lured overseas investors. They do everything from locating the home and negotiating the price, to arranging legal and survey work and researching potential pitfalls such as noisy neighbors.

They are prized largely for speeding up the process to reduce the chance of getting “gazumped,” a British term for being trumped by a higher bid before signing contracts.

Agents Quadruple

“Over the past five years especially, there has been a quadrupling in the number of buying agents in the prime central London market and their numbers increase all the time,” said Noel de Keyzer, head of house sales at broker Savills Plc’s Sloane Street branch.

There are fewer luxury properties for sale in prime London neighborhoods even as demand is rising. Residential purchases in the Westminster and Kensington & Chelsea boroughs, where average house prices exceed 1.3 million pounds, are down 23 percent from the average since 1996, according to London Central Portfolio Ltd., which buys and manages prime rental property investments.

About 100 properties worth at least 20 million pounds have been purchased since 2006 -- a category that’s less than 10 percent of the prime central London market. Most deals of that size are now handled by buying agents, de Keyzer said.
      
The scarcity of prime homes for sale lifted prices in central London by 23 percent since a yearlong slump, triggered by the worst recession since World War II, ended in March 2009, Knight Frank LLP estimates. Property values in the U.K. as a whole rose about 12 percent, according to the Nationwide Building Society.

Jackpot Deals

Agents have to court private banks or wealth managers to generate new leads to sustain the deal flow. Dozens of individuals, many former brokers, have set up on their own as overseas buyers flocked to London.“All you have to do is two or three deals a year and you earn as much as you did before,” said Johnny Turnbull, who has worked independently since 2006 after heading the London arm of Prime Purchase, Savills’s buying-agent arm.

 Competitors include Property Vision, a unit of HSBC Private Bank since 1991 -- and the biggest with a staff of 60 -- and Knight Frank’s The Buying Solution. Some independent buying agents say rivals owned by brokers have a conflict of interest because their companies represent both the buyer and the seller.
     
“They’re trying to milk the fees at both ends,” said Francis Long, who set up buying agency Hanslips 12 years ago covering London and southeast England.

‘Chinese Walls’

Savills and Knight Frank say there are “Chinese walls” and enough transparency to avoid conflicts, and that few customers have problems with the arrangement. Buying agents rely on relationships with brokers, developers and owners to get their clients first in line for a home. Providing a superior service is vital if they want steady business, said Bailey, who helped Madonna buy a home in Mayfair in 1999 and also works with hedge-fund managers and bankers.
    
 Agents research an area and prepare reports that may reveal whether a rock-star neighbor has loud soirees or whether planning authorities are hostile to tennis-court floodlighting.
      
“What worries me is that people don’t deliver and start to give the rest of us a bad name,” said Bailey, who has covered the prime London market for 25 years.

One morning in early July, Camilla Dell and Grant Aitken, of Black Brick Property Solutions LLP, dodged workmen refurbishing a three-bedroom apartment in the Knightsbridge district to see whether to make an early offer.

Feng Shui

Dell, 32, set up the London-based company in 2007 and has generated business through regular trips to visit potential buyers in countries including India and Nigeria.

“It helps us to understand them, to see them in their home and their culture,” said Dell, whose requests from clients have included properties with feng shui compliance.
     
Competition for high-end homes within commuting distance of London is also fierce. Here the agent’s research has to be even more exhaustive, said Mark Parkinson, who helped set up Middleton Advisors LLP in 2008 covering country homes in southern England. The efforts aren’t always appreciated. “You prepare a detailed report -- down to reminding the buyer of an old rectory that the church bells chime every 15 minutes -- and they probably don’t even read it,” said Parkinson, 37, as he drove a sport-utility vehicle that allows his customers to see properties over hedgerows.

Spencer and Allsopp

Spencer and Allsopp have encouraged buyers with smaller budgets to use agents, said Jo Eccles, who set up Sourcing Property four years ago and has handled about 70 purchases or rentals in London worth about 40 million pounds combined.
      
Not all the agents will survive, according to Andrew Giller, who heads London searches for The Buying Solution.
Competition and the slump in deals since the financial crisis mean individual operators, in particular, may struggle.
      
Spencer’s own London search company filed for insolvency in February 2009 after a four-month deal drought left it unable to cover the costs of running an office, marketing and staff.

He’s no longer involved in the business, parts of which were bought by Garrington Country, a company created from its former regional arm. Garrington has since expanded in northern England, said Managing Director Jonathan Hopper.

“The market is an emerging one,” Hopper said. “Who you are dealing with is key -- there’s a mixture of very capable, experienced agents out there and then there are those who are just going out to spend other people’s money.”

Monday, 23 August 2010

Friday, 20 August 2010

Housing Affordability! The issue is constantly highlighted by the Australian media and so called "experts"! What are the solutions?

Firstly, lets look at some fundamental differences between Australia and many other parts of the western world and lets also agree, that we can't argue that capital city prices are not only expensive but unaffordable for many!

"The big difference between Australia and most parts of the world is that we are a highly centralised society with only six states and two territories.  60% of all home sales take place across 0.5%  of the land mass.  Based on ABS figures to June 2009, the capital cities account for an estimated 14,039,373 persons of a 21,955,256 persons nationally.  This means that about 64% of the Australian population lives within the capital cities with an estimated 55% of the population living within the four largest cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane Perth).....in the US for example "...the 50 largest cities account for only 15.5% of of the population. Sydney makes up an estimated 20.5% of Australia's population...In Germany with a population of 82.4 million people, the capital Berlin accounted for 4.0% of the countries total population, whilst the 20 largest cities accounted for 17.8% of the population...in London, 14.6% of the total population lives in London, the 20 largest cities accounts for 27.7% of the population..." (RP Data, June 18, 2010 - Housing bubble? Not here, by Cameron Kusher)

Ok, enough statistics! They are constantly thrown around and still do not provide solutions, just the opportunity for more analysis paralysis, but it is interesting to see how dependent we Australian's have become on the major cities we live in and have done so since we arrived here and how we continue to be...

Once again affordability - or lack there of; has the loudest voice in the media, but no mention of it by either of the wood be Prime Ministers in the recent Non Election campaigning!  Property experts as usual offer up their great insights as to the reasons and the same old predictable cause is offered up - supply shortage (this is a big symptom, but not the only one, it- as it most often always is; is the some of the parts that makes up the whole) ! Then of course, there are the great financial minds - the Guru's; who preach the over value and unsustainability of Australian house prices, compared to the rest of the developed world. They too are invariably home owner's and I am sure are grateful for the absence of tax being payable on any capital gains and many, probably live in the more affluent suburbs of the major capital cities, where capital gains  - generally, outpaces the more broadly quoted median gains/falls.

Surely they don't want the value of their homes to fall and what good does their elevated view do for most who aspire to own a home, or those who indeed do? Does the opinion (based on selective data) that property is as much as 40-50% above fair value, help these indebted home owner's in the "mortgage belt" - who represent 60% of Australian's? And what if they are right, what difference does it make, it doesn't offer a solution to the issue of now, is it just to show how clever they are? 

All markets correct or fall, the property market is no different and the fact is, it is Australia's largest asset class - approximately 2.5 times the size of the stock market, and directly or indirectly (rightly or wrongly) one of - if not, the largest employer in Australia.

There are those too who claim to have crystal balls and can see around corner's - pointing to the infallibility of Australian property.  We are advocates of property obviously- it's our business, but we have and do, always consider buying "well" versus buying "right" (and this is not semantics) as well as looking at the fundamentals (which are most often overlooked) in balance with the technicals - or economics; tempering any purchase with the not so "common" common sense.

In considering the realities of the ongoing affordability "crisis ", we need to consider all the dependent variables - and there are many, before I continue, I don't believe there is a silver bullet - stakeholders in the housing industry are nearly always going to look outwardly to point the finger of blame elsewhere, instead of shouldering apportioned responsibility, mistakes or even - "we didn't think of that" and we also need to deal with realities. "If" is possibly the biggest word in the dictionary and no amount of wishing the past to be different is going to alter the realities of the present; so lets put that aside too.  Accountability is a long forgotten virtue in the politicised 21st century - the point that we are at now didn't happen over night but it doesn't change the reality one iota!

Home ownership (in my view) is not a right, affordable housing is though - this doesn't imply ownership.  It is every Australian's right in my view to have a roof over their head and the issue of affordability is not limited to home ownership, the issue is not complex (to over simplify it) but it is erroneous and stretches across private and public housing, in all its guises.


For the purpose of this article, we have elected to look at the issue that is highlighted most often - home ownership affordability. So what can be done about it?  Do the individual "experts" want to be right or be apart of a "solution"? As experts, these people across the political and industry landscape, have the ability to get the ears of those who can genuinely bring about change - and of the changes that we are proposing, some can happen right now, others may take more time, but all would require an adjustment - like the fact that petrol will most likely, always be over 100cents/litre, even when the cost per barrel halves - during the GFC for example and there will be some perceived pain perhaps.


Before we embark on solutions, perhaps we can look at what's our part in all this as individuals?  We are part of a community that has a collective conscience otherwise knows as - Australian's.  If we focus on the problem, the problem gets bigger, if we focus on the solution, the solution gets bigger.  Lets also leave the political "blaming" out of it too - it hasn't, doesn't and won't provide a solution, it merely breeds perpetual apathy and negativity.


In my experience, anything that is worthwhile; and its also been mine to observe, has not come with out sacrifice, some say pain, so when was it that we started to think we didn't need to sacrifice anymore?

In dealing with housing affordability (or unaffordability) - as individuals (the things - we can control), there are a few things we could do and take responsibility for (and these are not the responsibility of lenders, selling agents or governments);
  1. Save a deposit of 20% (up until the 90's this is what was required)
  2. Pool resources and look into co-ownership 
  3. Borrow what can be afforded to pay back - be responsible 
  4. Lower expectations of where you live and what you live in (don't worry about what other people think)
  5. Buy elsewhere and rent where you want to live, we don't need to own our own homes if we can't afford them, there will always be people who need to rent. Think of the investment as a forced savings plan that will deliver - moderate compound growth. It isn't a "right" to own a home. Who's dream is it - "The Great Australian Dream" anyway?  It was an idea (the simple version) and a legacy of the post WWII government to get the economy going...
  6. Individuals should know what they are prepared to pay for a property and set their budgets accordingly - agents and auctioneers are not holding guns to anyone's heads - everyone has a choice.
  7. Stop focusing on the things we can't control and are powerless over and look at those we can control.
Looking at the solutions, there are some that can be delivered right now, others over the mid-term and for the sake of grace, others that are more longer term.


Short-term Solutions (before the end of 2010):


  1. Remove the FHOG, it was supposed to compensate for the introduction of GST (which is only collected on new dwellings anyway) and it has actually pushed prices up.
  2. FHO Stamp duty to be reinstated although discounted to FHB - 50% of the duty payable upto a purchase price $600,000. In 2008, there were 135,000 FHB who didn't pay Stamp Duty Nationally The National March median house price in 2008 was $459,216.00.  The most affordable state for stamp duty is QLD, based on a purchase of $459,216.00 the stamp duty forgone was $8,275.30 - if this was applied across all FHB - Nationally for that year (at the lowest rate) the minimum stamp duty revenue missed out on was $11.172 billion for 2008 alone. That's a lot of health, education and roads funding missed out of.
  3. Removal of GST on new dwellings.  The June 2010 National median house price according to APM was $558,400.  Bases on this as the median for a new dwelling as well, $50,763 of this is GST and further, stamp duty is calculated on the house price including GST - a tax on a tax.

 Mid-Term Solutions (by the end of 2012):


  1. Look at the land tax impost, a significant reduction can be accounted for by the increase in stamp duty revenue, and flow on effects from the removal of stamp duty as state and local government receipts will increase off the back of increased building activity.
  2. Planning - the application process needs to be streamlined - time is money and developers have holding costs to consider before they even embark on the process, the longer it takes to approve the more expensive it for them to deliver a finished product.  Speed to market will deliver new dwellings sooner, increase jobs, improve productivity and bring government revenue forward...

Long-term Solutions (2011-2013):

  1. Future Fund should invest in public housing as part of their investment mandate and/or, provide funding directly - or wholesale, to institutions such as credit unions, to be mandated to lend to low income earners for housing on steeply discounted interest rates (this to be means tested of course)  .
  2. Infra-structure bonds (as already proposed) be issued to raise money for major projects at a federal & state level to shift some or all of the burden from the public purse to bring forward the public works program.
To reiterate, I know there is no silver bullet and the above mentioned is not a cure, there are most certainly other things to consider as well, but before anything can change or will change, it starts with individuals and then the reality of dealing with some uncomfortableness from some long overdue decisions that need to be made by our leaders for the greater good not for the current term of government be it at the Federal, State or Local level.

I welcome any and all, thoughts and comments? 



Author: Stuart Jones

Monday, 16 August 2010

Top Ten Residential Survey by valuers Dyson Austen

The sale of 18 Carrara Road at $26.75M (below left) has set a new record following the post GFC Real Estate recovery.

In fact, the latest Dyson Austen Top 10 Prestige Residential Survey prepared quarterly for the Real Estate Institute of NSW illustrates it is only the second time in almost 2 years that the highest transaction was over $20 million.

If we look at this result and the highest transaction ever achieved in the survey history ($45 million – Q3 2008 – above right) both sales occurred at a time when the $AU/US has just been devalued by 12% and almost 10% respectively.

Note: The jumbo prestige residential market is directly linked to the performance of the equity market, with the only other main external factor being the $AU/US rate as seen in Q3 2008 and the latest released Q2 2010 (attached).


To view the results, click here

Tuesday, 10 August 2010

Rose & Jones Property Buyer's Agents & Advisers June 2010 - Market Report

...Given the RBA’s willingness to raise and lower rates quickly – it is equally possible that rates could in fact decrease, later on in the year if monetary policy stimulus is required.
Given that the CPI was pushing toward the top of the band of the RBA’s target range, this too has heavily influenced the rate increases. CPI is another major indicator that the RBA considers in its interest rate decisions as you know.  The RBA target CPI to be in the 2-3% band, long term CPI has been 3.2% (over 10 years)....

Friday, 6 August 2010

The Knight Frank - Citi Private Bank; Wealth Report 2010

The wealth report compiled by Knight Frank and Citi Private Wealth every year provides keen insights into what HNWI have been and are thinking about - Globally.  The focus of the report as always is on prime residential real estate and provides an overview of the collective conscience of HNW (respondents to the survey) and their views on residential property as an asset class.  Commercial property and its global performance is also covered and what is happening as well as where.  In viewing the prime residential index, remember this is Prime (prestige, luxury or premium) residential property, it would be a mistake to not segment the market as you would a bourse...Australia is ranked No.1 in the Asian region which may surprise many! The report is informative and some of the findings will surprise many of the readers, for example - "Which do you think will be the best performing property asset class in 2010"... and where is Sydney, Australia ranked in the world's top cities today?  And as always, we remind property buyers, the fundamentals of the property purchase are just as - if not more; important as the economics, this is not just a cypher view, see what HNWI rank as important...Knight Frank - Citi Private: Wealth Report 2010

Australian property market fundamentals shift during the June quarter 2010

"Looking holistically at the results, it’s clear to see that activity amongst the luxury markets is slowing. Potential purchasers of high value real estate (representative of the top 20% of suburbs) are likely to have been impacted by the recent share market volatility and the economic uncertainty filtering out of the USA and Europe. On the other hand, it is likely that the most affordable end of the market is also not performing as strongly as the middle market, due to the fact that this market is mostly characterised by first home buyers and low income families. The lower priced end of the market is more adversely affected by higher interest rates and tighter lending criteria from the banks. Given these factors, the ‘middle market’, representative of the ‘average’ Australian property buyer is currently the strongest performer."

Our thoughts: Value is clearly returning to the market, this needs to be tempered with the time of year and lower volumes of stock - we are also facing a federal election (which whilst in our view it should't impact the decision to invest in property, it clearly does), uncertainity with interest rates, volatility in the stock markets and diminishing confidence has resulted more broadly, but in considering the purchase of a new home or investment property now is a good time to buy and most certainly - represented buyers are getting the advantage in the market when considering value, gaining access to off-market properties and so on.  I am reminded of the often touted "super coach" of rugby league - Jack Gibson, the game is simple..."if you want to win, play where the seagulls are on the pitch" implying, the opportunity is where no-one is or looking, because the barriers and competition - and therefore the hard way through; is where the players are...I too prefer the easier softer way. You deserve the upperhand by leveraging expert advice in not just this - all things, we do this in most other areas of life and business...isn't better to keep it simple?