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Wednesday, 12 December 2012

MP talks to property acquisition specialist, Stuart Jones from Rose&Jones about increasing offshore interest in the local Australian property market and their recent $19million AUD acquisition

We were just interviewed by Mandi Prager of MP Property Group to talk about off shore property buyers, buyers agency, what's trending and why engage a buyers agent for property advice, assessment, negotiation and execution?

Visit the MP Report click here

Boutique buyers agency firm Rose & Jones, based in Double Bay, deals predominately with high net worth's looking to expand their residential property portfolio as well as offshore groups looking to enter the Australian residential or commercial property market. With over 50 years of expertise and an impressive private client base, Stuart Jones talks purchasing trends and why of late off shore individuals are so keen to call Australia home.

Stuart Jones Rose&Jones, Mandi Prager the MP Report, MP Group International, MP My Property Agency

MP: Can you give us an example of some of the transactions Rose & Jones have completed for clients his year?

Stuart: We are very fortunate to work for great clients who value what we do and bring to the property transaction, they prize our service and advice.  A couple of examples of good deals we have done this year included  the purchase of an office building for one of our South African clients (we now manage over $40 million worth of assets for them) for around $19 million in the western corridor of Sydney’s CBD.  We did this transaction off market, fully tenanted with a net yield of 7.4% (and in case you were wondering, it was under rented with a good expiry mix, enabling us to improve the returns through negotiations and in time ne tenants).  Our client was looking for good passing income on an asset that presented good upside via the tenancy and reversion of the asset over the medium term as well, and they sought our advice on the locations and why.  We ended up focusing on the western corridor for a number of reasons, some which included it offers great value, its under developed, is an emerging market but buyers need to be discerning – a great reason to come and talk to us. Our client is really happy which we are delighted about, we are also managing the asset, it suits our client to work with us because we understand the strategy, we worked with them to devise it so it makes sense for them to have us roll it out – an end to end solution!

It’s not just the commercial piece, we purchase between $60 and $100 million worth of residential property annually, from $15 million plus homes to $600,000 investments. We bought a great semi in Bronte for a couple of New York based expats.  The property was purchased for $1.58 million, it had sold for $1.72 million in 2009, it is fully renovated and we have been able to lease it on a 5% yield. Our client is happy, they have secured their first home for when they return in about 3-5 years, they are getting a over 4% net in income + capital growth (they will get total returns of 9% pa + on the conservative side) and they purchased below replacement cost which is a great outcome for them – valuer was happy too.

Another good buy was a 2 bedroom unit in Stanmore, in a small block of 12, north facing with off street parking and over 120m2 on title + parking.  Our client is getting a 6% yield + Growth, it was bought at auction – with quite a bit of competition but our strategy worked, we secured the property below what we were prepared to buy it for, our DD showed it working as an investment, purchased on a 5.2% yield minimum, given the current return our “assessment” was vindicated.

MP: Why is Australian property so popular offshore?

Stuart: Firstly, Australia offers security for investors – politically, economically and  financially, I think this is attractive to investors. These reasons have gained even more credibility since the GFC, predominately from our Asian neighbours but South Africans also see Australia as both a safe haven and good place to invest.  The appetite for Australian property is stronger from Asia though, the strength of the AUD has seen this contract slightly in recent years and it deters US and European investors generally. The reality is that off shore investors, are affected by the strength of the AUD which is still at historically high levels and if/when the dollar returns to its long term average, I’m sure we will see significant weight in the market from off-shore investors, the “significant investor” visa is a good hedge for the government against the strength of the AUD at the moment and the maintenance of investor inflows has been underpinned with the “residency” carrot. That said, the savvy investors are in the market now, counter cyclically, they know that a big trigger for off shore inflows will be a drop in the AUD, they are capitalising on opportunities now, by building in a currency and physical hedge, they know that property isn’t just about numbers – the property you want on the cap rate you prefer to buy it at will probably not be available when the AUD is at $0.85…the smarter buying is going to be seen as now, when we look back!

Secondly, the Australian property market is attractive because it provides good diversity for investor types, whether they are passive investors or active, looking for reversion or strategic assets.  Although property is subject to vicissitudes like any market, it has proven to be robust, It is going through changes at the moment as we are seeing retail under threat but yields in office and industrial are strengthening- offering good returns and in the case of industrial (bought well) a future land bank hedge.  Alexandria, Waterloo, Zetland being a case in point as these become the new residential suburbs for Sydney.  Good yields can be found nationally, tenancy risk is certainly a lot less than in the US and Europe, we have a good legal system, unemployment under 6%,  and a strong banking system all under pinning the property sector.

MP: What recent trends have you been noticing with offshore purchase interest in Australian property?

Stuart:Interest in Office and Hotels is strengthening, Hotels look to have the strongest “visible” appetite at the moment from the Chinese/Asian investors particularly .  The long term future of the tourism sector is excellent and with the wealth piling up on our door step in India and China, we will increasingly benefit from our proximity to these countries – and they know this; so are looking for hotels to accommodate their countrymen on their travels, get good returns on their investment and off-shore (bank) money.  The inflows are going and will continue to strengthen into “direct property”, we agree with Ric Butler from CBRE, who pointed out recently that the “significant investor” visa program juts introduced, will see the majority of investor funds being deployed on a deal-by-deal basis into specific deals, not Funds.  The Chinese prefer to own and control an asset, they invest differently to the traditional western style investment models.

Increasingly, the appetite for Australian property from Chinese buyers in particular is growing.  If the number are right this could equate to around $3.5 billion a year. In China alone it is estimated there is around 1.2 million HNW households with a combined $4 trillion worth if investible assets.  But off shore buyers need to be careful and they need to think about changing the way they think about sourcing and securing Australian property.  They need to have a clear strategy, a clear path to completion, be sure they aren’t buying an over rented asset whose future vacancy could cause compress cap values, they need to consider that our legal system is different and also that the properties they are buying have agents representing the sellers interests and giving them advice, they should be sure to get a good team of advisers – legal, financial, technical DD and of course a Property Adviser (buyers agent, they are the manager and the striker if it was a football team)!

MP: Buyers agency is big in the USA but Australian property culture seems to have preferred to take advise from selling agents, when selling agents are remunerated by the vendor to get the highest price possible this seems a bit backward. What are your thoughts on this?

Stuart: You’re right, 70% of buyers in the US use a buyer’s agent however (unfortunately for them) they don’t pay the buyers agent, he/she gets there fee from splitting the selling agents fee.  On the surface that sounds great right? But the problem is it isn’t independent, the buyers agent cant negotiate the best price and terms for his/her client if they are getting paid by the selling agent, the selling agent can just say no, its this much or nothing, the agent wants to get a fee so is conflicted and would probably say ok.  It may make the path to completion smoother but the buyer is not have 100% independent representation by their agent – they can’t be, who ever pays is your master! Back in Australia, fortunately for buyers who use a buyers agent here, the agent is paid by the purchaser, it is illegal to take a fee from both sides of the transaction. Obviously i think its strange that more buyers don’t use buyers agents given we have engaged selling agents for over 100 years and happily paid them around 2% to get us the best possible and never given a thought to the fact that they work and are paid by the vendor.  I here all the time that I have an agent on the hunt for me and it isn’t costing me anything – really? At the point the agent finds a property and brings the buyer into the deal, the agent needs to get paid and it will be the vendor paying the agent, and so right then and there the agent stops working for you and is working for the pay master.

MP: What are the benefits of engaging a buyers agency like Rose&Jones for an acquisition? Are there drawbacks?

Stuart: The major benefit is getting independent, objective, risk managed – “advice”. We wouldn’t go and invest $500,000 in the stock market without advice but we will do that with property and increasingly this is in the millions, in a single asset and with no “advice”. Information is not advice and purchasers need to know this, there is so much on the internet, we also seek it from family and friends and a good sales agent will have you seek his/her counsel and they will happily oblige providing the buyer with select information which crafts the story they want the prospective purchaser to buy into – conditioning to compete for the asset. 

Not all buyers agents are the same, like not all selling agents are the same.  The myth portrayed by many buyers agent is they will “save you money”, unless the valuation is more than you purchased the property for then you can’t claim a “saving” and 99.9% of the time this is the case.  We have done it a few times but it’s not the norm and we have purchased over $1 billion worth of property. The correct approach is the buyers agent should make sure you don’t “over pay”  (they are legally required to buy for the best price and terms) this is where you “save” but this is also at the end of the deal, there is a lot of work to do before you get to execute.  It’s the advice piece buyers invest in, we are an investment – not a cost; it starts with the brief, then the Search (on and off market), short listing, reporting, assessing value (what is underpinning price and value – performance, floor plate, aspect, elevation, quality, uniqueness, peer testing, comparable analysis), risk adjusting (top down bottom up), asset performance (home or investment), technical due diligence, purchasing strategy, negotiating, price and terms, execution, exchange and settlement.  Unrepresented buyers will be paying a fee most of the time, by paying more to an agent and a vendor for a property then they need to.

Clients will benefit from confidentiality and anonymity and our clients also tell us that they love that we are the only agent they need to deal with and best of all, we work for them!
The only draw back is not speaking to a buyers agent and in the process, and recognising that not all buyers agents are the same.  You need to do your DD, REBAA.com.au is a good place to start.

Contact stuart on m + 61 414014783 | e stuart@roseandjones.com.au
Rose & Jones + 61 2 9327-6944 w www.roseandjones.com.au

Thursday, 1 November 2012

Age wearies house values

by confessionsofarealestateaddict

What do Wahroonga, Woollahra, Clontarf and Northwood have in common?.........Their median age is all over 40!

And what do Annandale, Surry Hills and Alexandria have in common? Apart from being a lot closer to the city than the first lot of suburbs, that is. Their median age is well below that of the national median of 37.

What does that tell us? That too many questions in a blog bore the reader?
 

True, but may I also suggest a correlation between what were once golden oldies (metaphorically but now literally) and hip young suburbs with values on the ascendancy.

After all, when the RPData figures are crunched in the 12 months to September, Wahroonga’s house values are down 1 per cent, Woollahra’s are down 12.1 per cent, Clontarf’s are down 2.4 per cent and Northwood down 2.6 per cent.


Meanwhile, as you can by now guess, Annandale’s house values are up 6.8 per cent, Surry Hills is up 4.7 per cent, Alexandria is up 6.2 per cent.
Admittedly, median figures are a fickle measure, particularly in that far more volatile prestige market where one great sale one year will throw the median out for the following. Just look at Point Piper. Median age 48 and house values down 12.1 per cent.


But there is something to this. Some more examples?


Vaucluse has a median age of 39 (not over 40 but over the national average) and house values fell 16.5 per cent in the 12 months to September, Burradoo has a geriatric median age of 58 and values are down 1.3 per cent (but those falls are modest compared with the 13.8 per cent fall the year before and even the 15.9 per cent fall in 2010). Palm Beach is down 2.3 per cent, which is bad news for the median aged 53-year-old local. Haberfield’s median age of 44 is…. you guessed it, down 6.3 per cent.


And all this while Tempe’s median aged 38-year-old basks in the 11.2 per cent rise in values of the past year.


Of course, there is another factor clearly at play. Distance from the city. All the growth areas are less than five kilometres from the city, except Tempe which is 7.6 kilometres. And all the hard-hit prestige pockets tend to be outside the 5 and even 10 kilometre radius, except Northwood (5 kilometres) and Woollahra (3.8 kilometres).


But the point is, we all already knew that the close-to-city market was a growth area and the prestige market has been hard hit by the continuing fallout from the GFC (and only those aged in their 40s and more can afford those areas). That’s not news though.


What is worth considering is the median age of the area. After all, as many an inner west family will tell you, where the yuppies once moved in, gentrified and then took off for the suburbs, home buyers now won’t budge for love or property. It’s too easy living close to the city, near each other and with so many diverse types of us nearby. And once kids are enrolled in local schools, well… it just makes moving all the harder.


Tuesday, 11 September 2012

Sydney is keeping pace with its Global peers, ranking No. 3 in the world!

Chinese property buyers have the potential to create top-end housing market momentum in key cities across the world, including Sydney, according to international real estate group Savills.

But not until Chinese currency and offshore investment rules are relaxed, says Savills global research director Yolande Barnes.

“Emerging markets, and Chinese buyers in particular, still have the potential to move other world city markets,” the report, Savills World Cities Review Index, suggests.

“The unleashing of high-net worth Chinese investor monies could boost London’s prime markets by 15% and the same must be true of other top cities, but this will require the relaxation of currency export controls and overseas ownership restrictions.”


Sydney ranked among the international cities showing positive prestige price growth, although Hong Kong led the Savills World Cities Index for the first half of 2012 with a price rise of just over 7%.

CITY 
Capital growth Jan-June 2012
Capital growth
June-Dec 2011
Capital growth since June 2005
Rank by capital value
June 2012
June 2005
Hong Kong
7.4%
-3.4%
105.9%
1
1
Moscow
5.5%
4.1%
113.5%
8
8
Sydney
3.7%
-2.0%
31.7%
9
6
London
2.8%
1.0%
34.7%
2
2
Singapore
1.5%
3.6%
110.3%
4
7
New York
1.1%
2.0%
10.5%
7
3
Tokyo
-0.3%
-0.2%
42.9%
3
5
Mumbai
-1.7%
0.0%
149.7%
10
10
Shanghai
-2.6%
0.1%
137.3%
6
9
Paris
-3.4%
4.4%
47.6%
5
4

Sydney was up 3.7% in a period when the residential markets of the world’s leading cities had become more localised. 

"The strongest price growth has been seen in those world cities that were buoyed by domestic demand, while international investor cash has retreated to a few core markets with established, long-term investment credentials," the report says.

Paris was the worst global city in the Savills index, with prices falling because of the ongoing eurozone crisis and proposed increases to taxes on high-end property and investor gains that followed the election of President François Hollande, who's set to impose taxes on the rich. 

"Paris is the biggest loser of 2012 and faces a period of uncertainty," the report notes, adding further price falls now seem unavoidable in the French capital. London is the potential beneficiary as international money seeks an alternative haven within the geography of Europe, but outside the eurozone.

London remains the second most expensive world-class market, but it too faces uncertainty regarding the impact of new stamp duty rules, announced in the March budget, which has already slowed activity and price growth at the top of the market.

"A period of flat prices now seems likely, though market fundamentals (high occupier demand and limited supply) favour growth longer term," the report notes.

Barnes says that New York is poised for a strong recovery with steady price growth, low mortgage rates, short supply and growing offshore demand.

An extract from PropertyObserver:-"Hunters Hill mainland Chinese prestige property purchase signals emerging international trend", By Jonathan Chancellor Tuesday, 11 September 2012

Tuesday, 3 July 2012

ING DIRECT (Australia) launches LVR-based pricing

Jessica Darnbrough (The Adviser, Tuesday July 3, 2012)

One of Australia’s non-majors has announced it will set its interest rates in line with LVRs.

Effective from 9 July, ING DIRECT will offer LVR-based interest rates on its popular Orange Advantage and SmartPack Mortgage Simplifier products to reward customers taking loans with lower LVRs.

Customers for new borrowings with LVRs of less than 80 per cent will be eligible for reduced interest rates.

Lower LVR customers borrowing $500,000 or more will receive an interest rate of just 5.88 per cent p.a. with an Orange Advantage or SmartPack Mortgage Simplifier.

“We’re looking to attract additional sub-80 per cent LVR business and this pricing structure will make us more attractive to upgraders and investors,” ING DIRECT’s head of broker distribution Mark Woolnough said.
“We’ve also taken on feedback and reduced the threshold under Orange Advantage and SmartPack from $300,000 down to $250,000 which will appeal to a wider market.

“Whilst we’ve made various improvements to our service proposition this year, we certainly haven’t overlooked the importance of sharply priced, competitive products, and these changes highlight this.

“Another positive, based on feedback from our broker partners, is that we’ve aligned Orange Advantage and SmartPack Mortgage Simplifier price points for loan amounts above $250,000 with LVRs below 80 per cent.”

ING DIRECT will also continue to waive SmartPack and Fixed Rate application fees, until further notice.

Monday, 25 June 2012

Why investors are turning back to property, particularly in Sydney!

BIS Shrapnel have just released their Residential Property Prospects, 2012 to 2015 and stated that...

“Sydney is forecast to record 17 per cent increase in median house prices over the next three years, compared to nine per cent for Adelaide, five per cent for Hobart, three per cent for Melbourne, and just one per cent for Canberra.”
  
Whether there growth forecasts are correct or not, it is clear that Sydney will be the focal point for price growth (driven by demand) over the near term.

So apart from organic population growth and migration, what will support growth in Sydney property prices? Investors!

Investors are slowly turning their attention back to the property market as they consider their future returns from current investments. For many, property is slowly starting to make its way back onto the radar and into their mind share. Investors naturally want to preserve and grow wealth, so what will turn them back to investing in property? Oddly enough, confidence! This is what is drawing their attention back to property - the opposite of course is true - currently for home buyers. 

So why is there growing confidence in property? The lack of confidence in the stock market due to volatility supported by uncertainty and the headwinds from Europe, China's slowing economy, falling interest rates locally however, property is showing good and strengthening rent returns ( in the numbers not the hyperbole) as well as offering the bonus of some capital growth in the asset class proving to be the least volatile and therefore is looking interesting again. 

We have noticed this interest from investors in our business,  and whilst it is not overwhelming and we don't expect “weight” to return to the market or that investors returning will drive up values greatly, savvy investors are certainly looking at select residential and commercial investment again and getting strong returns with bonus growth.  On the western corridor of Sydney’s CBD fringe for example, we recently purchased an off market property for under $19 million dollars with a net yield of 7.4 percent,  and in the residential sector, a house in Clovelly (at a discount to market) delivering a 5% yield which will provide growth of between 3-4 percent minimum providing total returns of circa 9 percent.

Investors are starting to look at property (according to our private bank and HNW affiliates) as TD's for example start to mature and interest rates tail off, income returns for property are looking attractive again - with the bonus of some capital growth, investors are targeting minimum total returns of between 7-9% pa. Even with the heady days or property doubling in value every 7-10 years (probably behind us for sometime), property has always kept pace with CPI historically, so with an average of about 3.2 percent pa over the long-term and face yields of circa 5.5% on units for example, the returns whilst not sexy, are safe ,less volatile and makes gearing look attractive again in the current interest rate environment.

The trick as always will be knowing what to buy and where -  factoring in all the variables including on costs, anticipating future ownership/rental demand, finding assets that complement an individual’s investment style and strategy as well as managing the downside risk - or, if you have or want to sell within 3 years of ownership, has the asset that has been purchased likely to get you the purchase price + costs back and if it was, how would you know?

Its probably worth getting some independent property advice (from a Buyers agent) in addition to any financial advice you may want to get.

17% growth for Sydney property over the next 3 years?


BIS Shrapnel have just released their Residential Property Prospects, 2012 to 2015 and stated that...

“Sydney is forecast to record 17 per cent increase in median house prices over the next three years, compared to nine per cent for Adelaide, five per cent for Hobart, three per cent for Melbourne, and just one per cent for Canberra.”
  
Whether there growth forecasts are correct or not, it is clear that Sydney will be the focal point for price growth (driven by demand) over the near term.

So apart from organic population growth and migration, what will support growth in Sydney property prices? Investors!

Investors are slowly turning their attention back to the property market as they consider their future returns from current investments. For many, property is slowly starting to make its way back onto the radar and into their mind share. Investors naturally want to preserve and grow wealth, so what will turn them back to investing in property? Oddly enough, confidence! This is what is drawing their attention back to property - the opposite of course is true - currently for home buyers. 

So why is there growing confidence in property? The lack of confidence in the stock market due to volatility supported by uncertainty and the headwinds from Europe, China's slowing economy, falling interest rates locally however, property is showing good and strengthening rent returns ( in the numbers not the hyperbole) as well as offering the bonus of some capital growth in the asset class proving to be the least volatile and therefore is looking interesting again. 

We have noticed this interest from investors in our business,  and whilst it is not overwhelming and we don't expect “weight” to return to the market or that investors returning will drive up values greatly, savvy investors are certainly looking at select residential and commercial investment again and getting strong returns with bonus growth.  On the western corridor of Sydney’s CBD fringe for example, we recently purchased an off market property for under $19 million dollars with a net yield of 7.4 percent,  and in the residential sector, a house in Clovelly (at a discount to market) delivering a 5% yield which will provide growth of between 3-4 percent minimum providing total returns of circa 9 percent.

Investors are starting to look at property (according to our private bank and HNW affiliates) as TD's for example start to mature and interest rates tail off, income returns for property are looking attractive again - with the bonus of some capital growth, investors are targeting minimum total returns of between 7-9% pa. Even with the heady days or property doubling in value every 7-10 years (probably behind us for sometime), property has always kept pace with CPI historically, so with an average of about 3.2 percent pa over the long-term and face yields of circa 5.5% on units for example, the returns whilst not sexy, are safe ,less volatile and makes gearing look attractive again in the current interest rate environment.

The trick as always will be knowing what to buy and where -  factoring in all the variables including on costs, anticipating future ownership/rental demand, finding assets that complement an individual’s investment style and strategy as well as managing the downside risk - or, if you have or want to sell within 3 years of ownership, has the asset that has been purchased likely to get you the purchase price + costs back and if it was, how would you know?

Its probably worth getting some independent property advice (from a Buyers agent) in addition to any financial advice you may want to get.

Monday, 4 June 2012

Banks relaxing LVRs and serviceability criteria but valuations still conservative: Sam White

"Banks lend based on the independent valuation they receive of the property – not the agreed purchase price – meaning borrowers must make up the shortfall themselves."

Interesting that this comment featured in the article, is this true I wonder?
 

As  buyers agents, we have argued the inconsistencies in valuation
approach between private treaty vs auction for years. Consider this, there is no law that says a valuation determined via the auction system is "market value" although 99.999% of auctions will be viewed this way and valuers are not even in attendance to scrutinize the price achieved and importantly how it was achieved, the valuation becomes an historical record for both the mortgager and mortgagee, where is the independence in all this if a private treaty transaction is treated differently to an auction transaction, particularly if
the valuation come in less than the contract price?  When purchased at auction - historically, valuers agree the market has been determined, even if the only other bid is a vendor bid, but now valuations need to be independent, so they haven't been then? Valuers have argued they always have been, now we
are being told they aren't/weren't (that's the inference in the article)...under the microscope of the faltering global markets and a patchy local property market - underpinned by a clear lack of confidence, the floors in the valuation system (we as an industry group have been talking about for years) are finally frothing to the surface!  The valuation system is long overdue for an overhaul but will anything be done?  If we are to have a fair independent system, there needs be a review! 


The valuer didn’t go to the auction, but they have no problem agreeing to the price paid, but they also didn’t witness the private treaty negotiations but here they do have a problem – most of the time and this can cost the buyer a lot of money and even incur them an irrecoverable loss, why?

The improving LVR's are one thing and a an appetite for lending will be well received by the market I'm sure however, unless the valuers "agree" that this is a good thing for buyers and this is supported wholeheartedly by the banks (the funders), the valuers will perform the way they think their Master's want them to, rather than independently!

Why is private treaty scrutinized differently to an auction transaction?

This is one of the reasons buyers benefit from getting independent property advice from a buyers agent as well as engaging them to transact and manage the process!


read the article here...Banks relaxing LVRs and serviceability criteria but valuations still conservative: Sam White

Wednesday, 30 May 2012

Analysts should start "Realcasting" instead of "forecasting"


Australian dollar declines after retail sales data

Published 11:40 AM, 30 May 2012 Last update 1:09 PM, 30 May 2012

By a staff reporter, with AAP

The Australian dollar has fallen after data showed Australian retail sales fell in April, against expectations of a rise.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed retail spending slipped 0.2 per cent to a seasonally adjusted $21.212 billion in the month.
At 1129 AEST, the currency was at 98.12 US cents just before the data's release, but it fell to 97.83 cents at 1131 AEST.

The currency finished Tuesday's local session at 98.75 US cents and struck a high of 98.55 US cents earlier today.

The forecast was for a total rise in sales of two per cent for the month.
It was also reported that construction work done rose 5.5 per cent in the March quarter, which was ahead of economists' forecasts.

The Australian dollar fell on Tuesday night after Egan-Jones cut Spain's sovereign debt rating and a Spanish official said the government would fund a massive bailout of Bankia, one of Spain's largest banks.

CMC markets foreign exchange dealer Tim Waterer said weaker than expected Australian retail sales figures, released on Wednesday morning added to the downward pressure on the local currency.

"The Australian dollar can't take a trick at the moment, the retail sales print brought down the currency," Mr Waterer said. "I guess the negative result was exacerbated by the fact that we had pretty poor global sentiment in the past 24 hours regarding Spain.

Mr Waterer said the result would add to the case for more interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to help the non-mining sectors of the economy. "The negative retail sales result brought back into focus what is happening with the domestic economy," he said. "It brings back into question what the RBA is going to do with interest rates cuts over the next couple of months.

"It gives the RBA more room to move on the down side with the interest rate and would reduce the appeal of the Australian dollar."

Meanwhile, the Australian bond market was firmer at noon.
At 1200 AEST on Wednesday, the June 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.955 (implying a yield of 3.045 per cent), up from 96.920 (3.080 per cent) on Tuesday.

The June three-year bond futures contract was at 97.670 (2.330 per cent), up from 97.620 (2.380 per cent).

Thursday, 24 May 2012

Australian BRW 200 Rich List 2012, some interesting facts!!!


Most people who report on where the property market is heading- including me, are not on the BRW Rich List for making their fortunes providing commentary or forecasting where property values will be, or whether it is overvalued, unaffordable or doomed to crash.

But people who know best and over extended periods of time (some decades) have amassed great wealth, obviously see and know something the number crunchers and doomsayers don't.  My guess is that part of what they know is how to create markets or extract something from them, by providing it what it needs as well as wants.  They clearly have to and do crunch the numbers but they also seem to understand the nature of human beings and the reality to - the need to have a roof over ones head, as well as meeting the desire to have places to commune, shop, dine, relax and so on.  They have a grasp on fundamentals that cant be excluded from the collective psyche...

This is reflected in the fact that roughly 55% of the 200 richest Australian's in 2012 - amongst the Global turmoil, have created and sustained their wealth via property.

The extract below is form an article in today's BRW;

The rise in the number of Rich 200 members to make most of their money from property perhaps also points to volatility in equity markets. Although the property market has had its own problems, it remains a relatively safe way to mind money in a downturn.

TABLE: 2012 BRW RICH 200 LIST MEMBERS BY INDUSTRY
 
 

Wednesday, 23 May 2012

Worry has become an addiction

May 23, 2012
by Malcolm Maiden. Sydney Morning Herald

The Kohlberg Kravis Roberts co-founder and co-chief executive George Roberts visited Australia in June last year and remarked that Australians seemed terrified of a global crisis they had not actually experienced.

Nothing has changed. Boston Consulting's annual global sentiment survey revealed last week that people were gloomier than they were a year ago, and on some measures in worse psychological shape than consumers in countries where the global crisis had wreaked havoc.

The recent March half-profit results from NAB, Westpac and ANZ provided another insight: the three banks all announced tighter margins in Australia, and expanding margins in New Zealand.

There are some structural trends at work there: home loans were 90 per cent fixed rate in New Zealand three years ago, and are now 60 per cent floating rate. The war for deposits that is still squeezing bank margins here also started earlier in New Zealand, and has eased.

But New Zealanders are also in a better mood. Credit and charge card spending in Australia edged up by only $251 million to $21.4 billion between February and March, according to MWE Consulting's payment cards report, to be 1.1 per cent down in a year. In New Zealand, card spending last month was 7.2 per cent higher than a year earlier.

There are, of course, reasons to worry. Fears that another systemic crisis will be spawned by Europe's sovereign debt debacle are far from baseless.
It isn't a concern that Australians hold alone, however, and there are others that we share. Households have been lifting savings and cutting consumption throughout the Western world, and while household savings detract from consumption as they rise, population growth and income growth return as the main spending drivers when savings stabilise, as they appear to have done this year in Australia.

The government pulled demand forward with its crisis fiscal stimulus and created a spending lull that is persisting, but so did other governments, and a baby boomer effect is also transnational. Baby boomers have absorbed five years of sub-par compound investment growth since the global crisis. As the curtain comes down on their peak income-generating years, they are saving more aggressively to compensate. The effect is magnified here because super savings are mainly marked to market, but it is happening across the developed world.

There are some pieces in the jigsaw that have a local flavour, however. Here are a few.

Politics 

Labor's 28 per cent primary voting support betrays widespread unhappiness about the status quo, including the July 1 commencement of a carbon tax at $23 a tonne, more than twice as high as the European equivalent. The Coalition's primary voting support of 49 per cent in the post-budget Nielsen poll meanwhile implies that one in two Australians agrees with Tony Abbott's bleak analysis of the economy, and its management by Labor. Abbott says he will fix things if elected. But there would be execution risks and uncertainty as he moved to end carbon pricing, the mining tax and the national broadband network.

The media

It loves disaster stories, and there's plenty on offer in Canberra. The Merrill Lynch Australia economist Alex Joiner says the media has been reporting about cost of living pressures when the underlying inflation rate is the lowest for more than a decade, giving layoff announcements attention when the economy is close to its full employment level, and running stories about the big banks not passing on all of the Reserve Bank's cash rate cuts without reporting that interest rates are below their long-term average.

The two-speed economy

The Reserve Bank successfully contained cost pressures coming out of the resources boom by keeping interest rates (and through them, the Australian dollar) relatively high, but the non-resources economy took collateral damage that has not been entirely undone by this month's half a percentage point cash rate cut from the Reserve. The flip side, of course, is that we have experienced a boom in our main export commodities that only one other OECD member, Canada, has also enjoyed, but on the east coast that's been a side-bar.

Changing work practices

A global theme, but it is building a head of steam here, and even workers who welcome the renewed push for workplace flexibility and productivity will adapt their behaviour to fit. Part-timers and casuals are inherently more sensitive to instability, or the threat of it.

House prices

In an upbeat piece yesterday about the economy's ability to withstand shocks, the HSBC economist Paul Bloxham said house prices had eased in the past 18 months. Most households were ahead on mortgage payments and ''most of the debt is also held by the wealthy'', he said.
''Plus, a housing undersupply is likely to keep Australia from having the sorts of destructive feedback loop that affected the US and Spain,'' Bloxham said. Still, house prices are twice as high as they are in the US: a cause for caution, even if the crisis continues to be viewed from a distance.

Tuesday, 22 May 2012

Share market falls make property a more attractive investment

By Michael Matusik
Tuesday, 22 May 2012
 
Things in Europe look worse that many predicted; the Queensland market has just come off a building boost and is waiting for the $7,000 stamp duty relief; NSW’s housing incentives will end on June 30, so investor attraction is there; China’s short- to medium-term growth prospects now look a bit dicey, and we are waiting with bated breath for a federal election. For mine, we need a Republican in the White House.
In short, our frugal mindset is now turning to concern, maybe even fear. The share market falls, plus changes to superannuation, make property investment potentially more attractive. But activity will be slow and all buyers will need thorough third-party endorsement.

Heck, things must be pretty bad – beer consumption is at a 65-year low and total alcohol consumption has fallen for the fourth straight year.

We need to further tighten outgoings, increase our service level, with a return to focus on the old-fashioned things like ringing clients, meeting face-to-face, breaking quotes/processes up into bite-sized and digestible pieces.

We will look for positives in all this gloom, but don’t push the envelope too far. Our new direction will work a treat and fulfil the market’s need.

According to the latest statistics from the Australian Bureau, the money spent by Australians on renovating their homes rose by 2% over the last 12 months. This compares to an 8% fall in the amount spent on buying a new dwelling across the country.

Renovation activity is strongest in Tasmania, Victoria, Canberra and South Australia, but is down in the Queensland, New South Wales and the Northern Territory.

Click to enlarge

When asked “If you were renovating to sell, where would you spend your money in order to gain the best return?” our recent online opinion poll found that kitchens won hands down. Just over half (55%) of our respondents picked renovating a kitchen as the best way to secure the highest return from renovating a residential property.

Painting, with 26% of the vote, came in a clear second, followed by doing up the garden with 10% of the votes followed by renovating the bathrooms (9%).

When it comes to improving the garden, our research has found that a water-wise home will also attract a premium and may, in the future, be a major contributor to achieving a sale.
Another recent website poll by us looked at rain tanks in terms of whether they added value to a home. Two-thirds of our respondents thought they did.

We have started a weekly poll. It will be included as part of the framework in the new-look Matusik Missive, out in early June.

This week’s question about the best place for long-term capital growth can be viewed here. Our polls will only take 10seconds of your time. Go on, give it a go! They will be a good straw test. Results will be reported on the website every Friday and via the new missive and through social media, such as Twitter and Facebook.

Chins up, heads down and try to smile…. laugh if you still are in good health.

Michael Matusik is the director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. Michael is a 25-year veteran in the industry and his firm has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition. Michael has launched a new initiative, called Think Matusik. Think Matusik brings together expert opinion and select property opportunities.

Friday, 18 May 2012

15 questions to ask when hiring a real estate agent

John McrGrath provided a list of the 15 most important questions to ask of your potential sales agent, its a good list and an excellent guide.

Of the 15 questions, one of the most important in the current market (and subsequently the answer) is what is the approximate time frame/how long is it taking to sell a well priced listing at the moment?  Over the last 12 months in the Mosman LGA average days on market has been 104 days, in Woollahra/Paddington, its been 63 days, so days on market are a key measure of an agents ability to perform.  In the questions below, you can see he seems to ask the same question twice, this is a good trick question - I think, agents need to be careful how they deal with this, and they certainly don't want to contradict themselves. 

What is the approximate time frame? In the current market the agent might answer 45 days, but later...How long is it taking to sell a well priced property at the moment? The answer here, may well determine if the agent gets the listing or not.  In this market in particular, a well priced property will sell quicker and a good agent will make sure a buyer who has the capacity to perform in the price range the agent and the client have agreed to sell, transacts as quickly as possible, because there may not be another buyer at that level and a property that sits on the "shelf" too long, gets a reputation and leaves room for buyer speculation - neither of which helps you to sell you the property. Less than 45 days in the current market - generally, would point to the more effective agent. Agents who know values the best and have explained this to their client, will want to deal away from the auction room - in many cases, even if there is more than one buyer using the 'sealed envelope bid' strategy, for example.  Price point properties are having more success at auction that is to say, well priced properties up to $1.2 million generally, well set on their block and with good floor plans for example, will sell at auction.

Here's the 15 questions to ask when hiring a real estate agent.

When selling your home, upgrading or downsizing - choosing the best agent to sell your property is the second most important decision in real estate (after choosing the right property to buy).
But from his experience many people are too casual in their approach to this crucial decision.  They ring a couple of agents and choose the one who gives them the highest valuation or has the lowest commission.  Create a series of questions that you want to ask agents, and interview a few as if you’re considering them for a job.

15 QUESTIONS TO ASK WHEN HIRING A REAL ESTATE AGENT
  • What do you think my property is worth? How have you come up with that figure?
  • How does my house present? What can I do to maximise the sale price?
  • What’s the best method for selling my property? Auction or private treaty? Why?
  • What’s an approximate time frame?
  • What’s it going to cost me?
  • Why should I hire you?
  • How long have you been working in this area?
  • What comparable homes have you sold in this area lately?
  • What’s the state of the market?
  • How long is it taking you to sell well priced listings at the moment?
  • What marketing strategy do you suggest? Why?
  • How much will be spent on marketing? Why?
  • How much traffic does your website get?
  • What will you do to introduce buyers to my property?
  • Do you have a list of recent vendors I can speak to?

Thursday, 10 May 2012

Really??? Sunnier property market outlook across Australia as vendor discounting peaked in mid-2011: APM

To read the headline story click here

I wouldn't be reading too much into those numbers, there are less properties for
sale on the market, and less buyers, resulting in fewer offers and less transactional activity therefore, vendors don't need to discount.  I love the way statisticians skew numbers to sell a story in attempt to create an illusion a la - David Coperfiled... As buyers agents - actively in the market, I can assure you there is still discounting at the levels of last year on a like for like in many of the Prime Markets (even allowing for lower
numbers). I think what you are seeing is an aberration,  vendors are resting their properties due to time of year (it is the low season), which will also skew the days on market downwards.  Lets look at the Woollahra LGA for example - the Clearance rates and discounts to market; (all data has been sourced from APM for the last 3 months)

Auction clearance rate (houses, adjusted) 37.2%
Average days on market (houses) 81
Average discounting (houses) 10.93%

The headline works in the 'price point' markets of the Sydney LGA for example with units for example, but see what happens to houses!!!

UNITS
 Auction clearance rate (units, adjusted) 62.3%
Average days on market (units) 74
Average discounting (units) 6.12%
HOUSES
Auction clearance rate (houses, adjusted) 54.3%
Average days on market (houses) 66
Average discounting (houses) 8.95%

But take a look at the Mosman LGA;

Auction clearance rate (houses, adjusted) 47.7%
Average days on market (houses) 103
Average discounting (houses) 11.64%

Now take a look at the Leichhardt LGA the inner-west darling;

Auction clearance rate (houses, adjusted) 54.4%
Average days on market (houses) 67
Average discounting (houses) 7.47%

Its still a 'Sunny' outlook for buyers, vendors on the other hand should be more strategic with the sale...there is no point in talking the market up but it is sensible to suggest that it was, is and will remain a good time to buy and trade, no one is going to convince property watchers that the market is entering an upturn, this sort of  'claim' just makes buyers more skeptical and keeps them out of the market longer they need to be.  Commentators should be encouraging buyers and sellers to make informed purchasing/selling decisions and this is the time where buyers in particular,  have the time to do that, no point making them more adversarial and I'm afraid, articles like this are only going to promote the latter...

Monday, 7 May 2012

The GFC has been a boon for some!!!

The graph below shows how the market share of the major banks has jumped from around 80% of the market to over 90% since the onset of the GFC.



Source: ABS

Do the banks have a vested interest in not passing on rate cuts in full (or at all) or being competitive in the home loan market, as well as supporting "low" consumer confidence?

They appear to have managed a correction in the property market (not as much as some would like - Steve Keen and Co), grown their market share, cut costs by shrinking their lending businesses and outsourced the lending piece to brokers who cost the bank nothing unless they write a loan, and they continue to seem to be managing further price adjustments in certain price points with lending strategies. With market share like this, why would they want "new" business when all they need to do is yield manage their existing business better to grow profit.

Oddly, one of the beneficiaries of the GFC and lagging consumer confidence appear to be banks - at least in Australia.

Tuesday, 1 May 2012

RBA Lowers Official Cash Rate - expect another 25bps at least in June!


At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 per cent

Before diving into the article, the key phrases that lept out for me and point to their concerns and the reason we can expect more loosening are;

  • Softening Labour Market conditions = unemployment concerns
  • Considerable structural change in the economy =  banks lending policies have changed, its harder to borrow and they needed to incentivise the banks to lend...
  • Credit growth remains moderate = going from a nation of borrowers to savers has taken much of the demand out of the cycle and the RBA new a 25bp decrease wouldn't be passed on.
  • Stabilsing house prices =  the bank is now happier, they can see the commercial bank balance sheets a stronger, bad debt provisions have lessened, but on the demand side, confidence needed a boost!
  • ...Considering the appropriate size of adjustment...50 basis points in the cash rate was, in this instance, therefore judged to be necessary = they new any less would be ineffectual and with rates sitting
  •  ...interest rates for borrowers have been close to their medium-term averages over recent months = means, with rates rising in this economic environment, demand will continue to contract, the economy needs stimulus - not only to encourage borrowing, but free up household discretionary spending too!  
 Expect at least, another 25bps in June
 

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor Monetary Policy RBA.

This decision is based on information received over the past few months that suggests that economic conditions have been somewhat weaker than expected, while inflation has moderated. 

Growth in the world economy slowed in the second half of 2011, and is likely to continue at a below-trend pace this year. A deep downturn is not occurring at this stage, however, and in fact some forecasters have recently revised upwards their global growth outlook. Growth in China has moderated, as was intended, and is likely to remain at a more measured and sustainable pace in the future. Conditions in other parts of Asia softened in 2011, partly due to natural disasters, but have recently shown some tentative signs of improving. Among the major countries, conditions in Europe remain very difficult, while the United States continues to grow at a moderate pace. Commodity prices have been little changed, at levels below recent peaks but which are nonetheless still quite high. Australia's terms of trade similarly peaked about six months ago, though they too remain high. 

Financial market sentiment has generally improved this year, and capital markets are supplying funding to corporations and well-rated banks. At the margin, wholesale funding costs have declined over recent months, though they remain higher, relative to benchmark rates, than in mid 2011. Market sentiment remains skittish, however, and the tasks of putting European banks and sovereigns onto a sound footing for the longer term, and of improving Europe's growth prospects, remain large. Hence Europe will remain a potential source of adverse shocks for some time yet.

In Australia, output growth was somewhat below trend over the past year, notwithstanding that growth in domestic demand ran at its fastest pace for four years. Output growth was affected in part by temporary factors, but also by the persistently high exchange rate. Considerable structural change is also occurring in the economy. Labour market conditions softened during 2011, though the rate of unemployment has so far remained little changed at a low level. 

Recent data for inflation show that after a pick up in the first half of last year, underlying inflation has declined again, and was a little over 2 per cent over the latest four quarters. CPI inflation has also declined, from about 3½ per cent to a little over 1½ per cent at the latest reading, as the weather-driven rises in food prices in the first half of last year have, as expected, now been fully reversed. Over the coming one to two years, and abstracting from the effects of the carbon price, inflation will probably be lower than earlier expected, but still in the 2-3 per cent range.

As a result of changes to monetary policy late last year, interest rates for borrowers have been close to their medium-term averages over recent months, albeit tending to increase a little as lenders passed on the higher costs of funding their books. Credit growth remains modest overall. Housing prices have shown some signs of stabilising recently, after having declined for most of 2011, but generally the housing market remains subdued. The exchange rate remains high even though the terms of trade have declined somewhat. 

Since it last changed the cash rate in December, the Board has maintained the view that the setting of policy was appropriate for the time being, but that the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy, if needed, to support demand. The accretion of evidence over recent months suggests that it is now appropriate for a further step in that direction.
In considering the appropriate size of adjustment to the cash rate at today's meeting, the Board judged it desirable that financial conditions now be easier than those which had prevailed in December. A reduction of 50 basis points in the cash rate was, in this instance, therefore judged to be necessary in order to deliver the appropriate level of borrowing rates.


Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Harry Triguboff’s six steps to apartment affordability – starting with more high rise

Harry Triguboff’s six steps to apartment affordability – starting with more high rise

By Harry Triguboff
Wednesday, 18 April 2012

There are some very simple steps which could reduce the cost of Sydney apartments by about $60,000 – from, say, $550,000 to $490,000. Many of the steps also apply to Melbourne.

If the steps were taken it would also provide a fantastic boost to the Sydney construction industry, which is now struggling. If we do not take these steps then Chinese buyers will purchase the vast bulk of inner-Sydney apartments.

Here are my six steps:

1) In inner-city areas we need to recognise that five-to six-storey apartments are uneconomical. We must change the culture and build apartment blocks with 12 storeys or more. These large apartment blocks are the only solution to the dwelling shortage because outer suburban cottages require too much land and too much infrastructure. Worse still, the home buyers are forced to spend too much money on transport and too much effort is required to go to work and come home.

2) We need to streamline the approval process, which currently can take can take two to three years even when an application complies with all the controls.

3) The state government advisory document called SEPP 65 stipulates strict requirements for the number of units requiring light into the living rooms, which leads to the incorporation of far too many two-storey crossover units. These are not favoured by the market and add enormous cost to a development.

4) The New South Wales Land & Environment Court takes far too long to hear cases and then far too long to hand down decisions. In any event, the majority of decisions seem to be in favour of councils and against developers. It’s a huge burden on the cost to the buyer.

5) Section 94 contributions, which are charged by individual councils, must be fixed at a maximum of $20,000 per apartment and should include all works required by councils and other authorities to the roads and utilities surrounding a development site. These should be payable at occupation of development.

6) Affordable housing levies, where they exist, should be abolished as this is purely a tax on development and the provision of affordable housing is a burden which should be shared by the entire community, not just the development industry.

Australian buyers are back in the market but they are being forced to pay unnecessary costs. Lower interest rates will increase Australian buyers but supply is artificially being held back and the costs boosted by state and local governments.

Harry Triguboff is managing director of the Meriton Group

7) Another step I would add, is the removal of GST on new dwellings - a $550,000 unit would be $50,000 cheaper!

Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Australians pay down debt at accelerated level

The investor market may be set to boom again, with new research showing Australians are paying down their debts faster and thus accruing greater equity in their property.

According to the ING DIRECT Financial Wellbeing Index, Australian households continue to pay down debts and build up savings in an attempt to secure their financial wellbeing.

Comfort with long term debt is at its highest point since Q2 2010, with 40 per cent of households with a mortgage paying down ahead of time, and 56 per cent are paying as due – up from 54 per cent last quarter.

“It’s clear households have changed their view of debt and have prioritised accelerating mortgage repayments,” ING DIRECT executive director delivery Lisa Claes said.

“This may present opportunities to brokers who can help their customers utilise their growing equity, for example, as a deposit to purchase an investment property.”

The Wellbeing Index also found that the median outstanding mortgage balance is $182,581 – slightly lower than the $219,747 recorded last quarter.

Jessica Darnbrough
The ADVISER
Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Thursday, 9 February 2012

What rate cut....

All looks good for the millionaire amateur pilot...

What on earth is the Reserve Bank thinking? Perhaps Glenn Stevens spent his summer vacation lazing on Palm Beach, sipping coffee at Portsea, snorkeling off Hamilton Island or sailing at the Royal Perth Yacht Club.
As a reminder, amateur pilot Mr Stevens received a $40,000 pay rise in 2010 to take his salary up to $1.049 million – making him the highest paid public servant by more than $200,000.

Perhaps a trip out to the suburbs every so often might help the RBA get a look at the real world…where confidence is low, jobs are being cut, spending growth is non-existent, mortgage and rent repayments are hurting, energy, transport and food costs are rising, and the soaring Aussie dollar is literally killing businesses.

Instead, the RBA is looking overseas. They are looking at a U.S economic recovery and still robust Chinese growth. But they are looking in the wrong place. They need to turn their focus to the home front.
Anyway, it is what it is. It's no use crying over spilt milk. In the whole scheme of things, a cash rate of 4.25 per cent versus 4 per cent doesn’t change much. And life goes on…

reprinted with permission of our Foriegn Correspondent from - Looking into the Fisbowl...

Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Residential - Strong fundamentals mean there is no Australian housing price bubble: ANZ

Residential - Strong fundamentals mean there is no Australian housing price bubble: ANZ

RP Data-Rismark reports in its latest findings that that nationally housing prices fell 0.2% in December 2011. Melbourne and Perth were the hardest hit, with Melbourne dwelling values down 0.5% and Perth values down 1.6% during the month. Sydney bucked the trend, with dwelling prices up 0.4% over the month.

Back to ANZ'z report......The bank forecasts house prices will remain on hold or fall slightly in 2012, but will not crash. This should reassure buyers looking for a greenlight to purchase this year...If you're looking for even more certainty, then call us!

Monday, 23 January 2012

The world's most liveable cities in 2011 and therefore 2012

World’s Most Liveable Cities 2011 (by The Economist)

1. Vancouver, Canada
2. Melbourne, Australia
3. Vienna, Austria
4. Toronto, Canada
5. Calgary, Canada
6. Helsinki, Finland
7. Sydney, Australia
8. Perth, Australia
9. Adelaide, Australia
10. Auckland, New Zealand